Arctic Rainforests: What Will Things Look Like at 3C and Beyond?

There’s no use avoiding the question.

Over the last few years, more climate scientists and more studies have made it clear that we’re going to see 2C or even 3C of global warming by the 2050s. The climate models we were fed were wildly inaccurate. In fact, according to one model, my daughter could see 4C of warming on this planet before she’s old enough to retire (by today’s standards). And yet, it’s still hard to envision. Those of us paying attention have some sense of what all this means for everyday life.

But it’s still fuzzy.

It’s rare to find someone willing to paint a vivid portrait of the future. A lot of scientists won’t risk their careers by sounding too alarmist. Those who tell the truth usually fall back on vague metaphors and melodramatic language. Neither one really seems to do the job. So, I’ve spent some time going back over books, articles, and documentaries to piece together something concrete. For example, Mark Lynas does a pretty great job in Our Final Warning. In fact, he lays out what to expect at each stage from one degree of warming up to six.

I’m thinking of this not as a catalogue of doom, but a mental exercise. I think it’s far better for our mental health to drill down into the details so we know what to expect. We need to know, so we can stop wondering.

Here’s my best shot so far.